Sales forecasts you can count on

01

A world of difficult decisions for buyers: harder to read

Buying has become harder. In a Gartner survey, 77% of B2B buyers said their last purchase was very complex or difficult.¹ Several people are involved. Options compete. Internal politics matter as much as the offer.

This is where forecasts go wrong. Most forecasts track what sellers do: meetings held, proposals sent, stages passed. They do not track what buyers are deciding. And the biggest competitor is often no decision. A study of about 2.5 million recorded sales conversations found that 40 to 60% of deals are lost to customers doing nothing.²

Only 45% of sales leaders and sellers have high confidence in their organisation’s forecast accuracy.³ A better dashboard does not fix that. A better view of the buyer’s decision does.

02

Supporting decision-making processes

A forecast you can count on starts with the buyer’s decision process, not your sales stages.

Many deals do not fail because a competitor won. They stall because the buyer could not decide with confidence.⁴ So the seller’s job shifts: help the buyer decide well, in as little time as possible. You stop pushing the deal forward. You help the buyer make a decision they can defend inside their own organisation: agree on the problem, weigh the options and manage the risk.

For each deal, you need to know how the buyer will decide. Who is involved. What each person needs to see. What could stall the decision. What happens if nothing changes.

Buyers face four obstacles. Each one is also a risk to your forecast.

• Decision complexity

  The buying group is large and unclear. Who decides, and in what order?

  You help: Map the buyer’s process with them, not your own sales stages.

  Forecast signal: You can name the decision-makers and the steps, and the buyer agrees.

• Information overload

  There is too much to read, compare and weigh

  You help: Narrow the options and the information to what the decision needs.

  Forecast signal: The buyer can say what they are comparing, and why.

• Misaligned objectives

  Each stakeholder wants something different

  You help: Bring the differences into the open early, and help the group find shared ground.

  Forecast signal: Stakeholders describe the objective in similar words.

• Outcome uncertainty

  The buyer fears the choice will fail after the purchase

  You help: Share what other clients learned in similar situations, and be honest about risks and limits.

  Forecast signal: The buyer talks about implementation, not only price.

Two drivers sit behind all four: making the process easier, and keeping the buyer in charge of the decision. Push too hard, and you take away the second one.

Buyers show you these signals only if they trust you. When all four are visible, your forecast reflects the buyer’s progress. When they are not, it reflects hope.

03

Six critical questions for sales leaders